MANILA -- Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical, Services, Administration (PAGASA) administrator Nathaniel Servando said indications are high that the El Niño phenomenon will likely develop and affect the country within the next few months.
"Atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific continue to be near-normal in July 2012, although a persistent warning in the tropical Pacific Ocean trending towards an El Niño condition have been observed since June," he emphasized.
Servando added that warmer sea surface temperature strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific ocean, a typical development stage of an El Niño.
Likewise, observed warmer temperatures below the surface of the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean is a good indicator to sustain the evolving El Niño condition.
"Dynamical and statistical model forecast suggest the El Niño will likely develop in August or September," the PAGASA administrator.
El Niño period are usually characterized by below normal rainfall condition across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and early months or first quarter (Jan-March) of the following year.
Climate pattern in the country during the months of July and August was generally influenced by the moderate to strong westerlies, which reflect an active southwest monsoon activity, generating enhanced rainfall over most areas of the country.
This characterized the seasonal variability of El Niño impact, where the reverse happened during the early stages of warm episode, an enhanced rainfall in any time within the months of July, August, September instead of below normal rainfall condition.
Based on the probalistic El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- Climate Prediction Center (CPC), slightly more than 70 percent of the ENSO forecast models predict El Niño condition developing around August- October season, continuing through the rest of 2012.
Initial impact of the likely developing El Niño during September is below normal rainfall condition in the eastern portions of Northern and Central Luzon, including Palawan, some portions of Western and Central VIsayas and Wesern Mindanao.
The rest of the country will likely experience near to above normal rainfall conditions and drier than normal rainfall are likely during October. *PNA