NEGROS RISING?
PART III

To talk or write about “rising” when the world is writhing in economic flu maybe is somewhat too optimistic. Spain is in a tail-spin; Greece is on the verge of imploding and Italy not too far behind. But, hey, that’s in Europe. What have we to do with it? Except for one fact: the economy of every country has become global. A sneeze in Greece can cause a cold in Turkey.

But of course the disease, if we could use this as a simile, may devastate one part of the body but leave other parts relatively unscathed.

As everyone knows the “carnival glee” started when it was announced that the GDP of the country was 6.4 percent, higher than India with 5.3 percent; Hongkong, the economic wonder of Asia which unbelievably had only less than 1 percent growth at 0.4 percent; South Korea, the industrial giant with only 2.6 percent Japan, with 2.5 percent and lastly Singapore with 1.6 percent. We also topped Indonesia (6.3 percent) Vietnam (4.3 percent) and Thailand whose growth plunged to 0.3 percent, obviously because of the rampaging floods that damaged a lot of infrastructure.

Only China at 8.1 GDP remains unsurpassed.

All of this happened at the beginning, the 1st Quarter of 2012.

There is even an economic expert who wrote a book that TIP, that is Turkey, Indonesia and the Philippines could be considered as new drivers of the world economy.

Is that for real?

In any event, here’s good news that could be the basis for our new found rapid growth: The Philippines has over-taken India in both voice and non-voice communication service. This industry is worth about P11 B today. It can employ 1.3 million Pinoys in 2016. (Gossip is that Americans prefer the Pinoy speaking English to the Indian who speaks with a sort of British twang).

What are, or were , the ingredients of this “rise”?

These are some items that are critical:

*increase in OFW remittance by 5.4 percent

Exports, inspite of worldwide recession, increased by 7.1 percent.

Increased investments (foreign and domestic) in 2011, with 37 percent growth compared to 2011 (about P746 B that created 194,000 new jobs. Note that Pres. Noy-Noy in his travels abroad had been trying to bring in foreign investments. The figures are $2.6 B or P 100 B in done deals.

Zoilo P. Dejaresco III submits this question “Is 6.4 percent just beginner’s luck and can not be sustaineds.”

Note that the 6.4 percent is for the first quarter of 2012. The economists have chopped up the year into four parts and rate each quarter. The meaningful figure is the annual G.D.P. The first can be a flip, a lucky one. This is really unlikely in our case. There maybe a decrease but no radical ones.

One of the pillars of the Noynoy prosperity is tourism which promises “more fun in the Philippines”. However, the kidnapping of a Jordanian journalist in Jolo has under scored the precarious state of security in the area.

Those people in the tourism trade should study very well whether to continue promoting Jolo or the Sulu area which appears to crawling with “kidnappers” for ransom. It’s no fun being kidnapped. What are the obvious underpining’s of Noynoy’s blue-print? Noynoy’s model is Brazil, whose present prosperity stems from better education and improved health care.

Wise and healthy? The way to go?

ALAN MACASA. This column takes note of the death of Alan Macasa, a close friend of this columnist. Allan used to be a councilor of this city during the early days of the Cory Aquino administration. Later, he practiced law and for a while was legal counsel of La Carlota City.

I understand that Alan suffered from cirrhosis of the liver. Alan had a lust for life and lived a life with color.

To the bereaved family of Alan, this columnist extends his condolence.*

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