What deadlock?

Some commentators, especially on radio, say that the failure of the Nationalist People's Coalition to agree on a single candidate for governor of Occidental Negros for the 2013 election is deadlocked.

What deadlock? The NPC's failure is actually redundant or unnecessary because the fact is that the two contenders – incumbent Gov. Alfredo Marañon and challenger Vice Governor Genaro Alvarez – are prepared to slug it out.

From the start of the imbroglio, Marañon has been adamant. There is no if and no but. He is determined to sail against the wind if necessary. He made it clear several times – he is running.

On the other hand, Alvarez insists he is running but has to wait for the NPC to have only one candidate and, since he has the blessing of former Ambassador Eduardo Cojuangco, that means he is the anointed one by NPC and expects Marañon to step aside.

But if he is already the anointed one, why is he still placing conditions to his candidacy – a united ticket of NPC? He creates the impression that he cannot win without all the NPC behind him, Marañon included.

With the adamant posture of Marañon the condition Alvarez raised cannot be met and thus there is no deadlock at all. If Alvarez insists on his being the chosen one as the basis for running, so why stipulate at all? His condition does not faze or affect Marañon.

As I wrote earlier, the only way that the NPC can be united is for one to withdraw and since Marañon will not, no matter the pressure, then unity can only be achieved if Alvarez withdraws.

That is unlikely as well, although indications also show that Alvarez's condition (unified NPC) is a small opening. That opening is a good excuse, an honorable way of withdrawing without losing face.

Marañon, on the other hand, provides no opening or softening at all.

Alvarez says “Yes I am running if there is a solution acceptable to everybody, despite the NPC endorsement. Why should I insist?” He is projecting an image of a reluctant candidate, “forced” only by the endorsement of NPC or Cojuangco.

He seems to be playing with words like a coy damsel.

The serious consideration of an Alvarez withdrawal from the race is the blessing of Cojuangco that would come to naught. That would be a devastating blow to his image as the “king maker” because his words or endorsement did not carry enough weight as to make politician to toe his line or make Marañon kowtow. This makes Alvarez hedge.

Of course, our political history shows that not all Cojuangco candidates won, in fact, in some cases, his endorsement and funding was counterproductive. People do not want dictation. Nevertheless, his anointment adds to a candidate's chances of winning, thus the beeline to his door.

The defiance and victory of Pulupandan Mayor Magdaleno Peña despite Mrs. Gretchen Cojuangco campaigning against him tells a story worthy of study. Of course, Mayor Magsi is one of a kind who defies all odds.

The apparent indecisiveness of Alvarez telegraphs a position of weakness although this can also be a psychological strategy which he explains quite plainly that he is “not power hungry” as if to contrast the adamant stance of Marañon as “power hungry.”

However, Alvarez's dithering has been allowed to linger for so long that he impresses a negative image for a provincial executive and a possible puppet.

Decisiveness or political will is a desirable characteristic of so high an executive position as that of a governor. That might not be intended, but oftentimes our best calculations can be understood differently.

The NPC is reported to be meeting again, but unless one of them withdraws they are back to square one. Cojuangco is not expected to take back his endorsement of Alvarez, and Marañon would be committing political seppuku if he buckles under.

If NPC decides to back up Alvarez that would not matter to Marañon who was unceremoniously, treacherously and indecently removed from the chairmanship of the NPC and replaced with a newcomer to the party.

The cards in NPC are stacked against Marañon, and I think he knows that, so there is nothing to expect of political value from NPC's leadership except if they eschew Alvarez. I don't think that is an option.

But in the midst of all the brouhaha, the solution has already been made by Cojuangco. He said he is backing Alvarez but also reportedly said Marañon can choose to run, an unnecessary statement, but an implied admission of the realities of the situation and a signal for battle.

The planned meeting only prolongs the agony of the province. The Alvarez partisans are already sabotaging Marañon's projects, exchanging the people's welfare for the value of their election expenses.*

back to top