Fumbled headcounts

“The true test of civilization is not the census“, Raplh Waldo Emerson insisted. “( Rather ), it is the kind of man that the country turns out.”

`Like Renato Corona? At the impeachment trial, lawyers of the Supreme Court chief’ try to square the circle for him. They’ve crammed pricey condos, choice lots to sealed dollar accounts within Corona ’s fixed salary.--- with scant success so far.

A census can induce M-E-G-O ( “My eyes glaze over”.) Yet, headcounts are crucial to fraud-free elections or deciding how many classrooms to build.

Look at our 12 headcounts since .a 1903 census tallied 7.6 million of us then. The delayed 2007 census counted four Filipinos where there was one after World War II. There were 101.8 million Filipinos last year, Index Mundi claims. World Bank , however, pegs 2012 population at 93.2 million --- closer to.National Statistical Coordination Board’s “guesstimate”, anchored to “2000 census based projections.”

Why do we still fiddle with this decade old census?. Didn’t the last but two-year overdue headcount report a population of 88.5 million in 2007? Then President Gloria Macapagal -Arroyo signed Proclamation 1489 for that.

“UN projected there’d be 86 million of us by 2010Viewpoint noted ( PDI / April 21, 2008 ). But birth rates declined slower than other countries, . Proclamation 1489 shows we crossed that marker 2005 – five years earlier than predicted.”

Below-the-surface misgivings roil scientists. Political warlords grounded census teams . A high rate of non-response bugged census enumerators. ”We didn’t count everyone”, admits an official. At the Philippine Population Conference, demographer Mercedes Concepcion and colleagues blasted Maguindanao’s “statistically impossible” 5.4-percent increase in population.

Most “newcomers” were 18 years olds – therefore new and new voters. In the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.numbers sprinted by 3.7 percent. In contrast, 19 Asian countries reported population declines.

“Vodoo demography” derails comparison with previous censuses. Policy makers, scientists and local leaders meanwhile fly blind. Yet, this policy crafting, by-the-seat-of-one’s pants, could be avoided. How?.

President Aquino monitors the drive to gouge out the corruption canker. This is essential. Ask those who track the Corona impeachment. Beyond scorched-earth measures, however, the President must build. He has limited time and must multi-task. He could, for example, dust off the report of the last national census, conducted May 17 to June 14 in 2010. It has moldered on the President’s in-tray.

Wait for the 2010 census results, Don’t fidget, counsels the National Statistical Coordination Board. Wait for release 2010 census results, By August 2012, statisticians will have the detailed tabulations of the 2010 results completed Everyone can construct projections then.

"Our hands are tied until the President gets around to declaring 2010 results official” say social scientists. “Barangay to provincial planning offices scrounge for data vital for action programs.. We can not supply them". The Philippine Statistical system is hogtied.

And don’t forget: The National Statistical Office is already is already planning for the mid-decade 2015 census! That’s only three years away. Si viene atrasao, hueso ay come, the Chavacano proverb says “He who comes late eats the bones.”

This is underscored when one surfs the US 2010 Census. A flick of the mouse can get population broken down by states, towns, countries, even block level. In contrast, one hits a blank wall on our 2010 census.

Filipinos can ill afford feet-dragging on reforms. Today, “children … are born into deeply unequal societies and live out their lives hampered (or, in the case of a privileged few, aided) by collective perceptions, conventions and stereotypes, warns Unicef in it’s 2012 report on the “State of World’s Children.”

Over 1.7 million children huddle in Metro Manila slums. Impoverished rural migrants and children cascade into urban centers like Olongapo to, Batangas, and Davao.

Natural disasters drove 42 million people from their homes in the Asia-Pacific 2011, Asian Development Bank notes. Among countries at risk are: the Philippines , Indonesia , Myanmar , the Thailand and Vietnam . Temperature increases, changing rainfall patterns, sea-level rise, and more intense tropical cyclones will drive future migration patterns, Countries with high population density and long coastlines, like the Philippines , will bear the brunt of such changes.

. History tells us a census can anchor key events.. “At that time, the emperor issued a decree for a census of the world to be taken,” Luke writes. “Joseph set out from Nazareth …to be registered with his wife Mary…in David’s town of Bethlehem .”*

( Email: juan_mercado77@yahoo.com )

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